Tuesday, July 15, 2008

The Energy-hungry Economy

President Bachelet announced recently a series of measures designed to mitigate the effects of elevated costs of food and energy prices. These rises in commodity prices she says, were a global phenomenon due to higher interest rates, and that these external influences naturally affect Chile and Chileans.

Well, that does sound reasonable in this time of energy price volatility and economic downturn; measures may temporarily mitigate the strain for the average Chilean family. We have heard of "negative growth" and market volatility from all sides, however to categorize the local effects as due to external events tells only half the story.

Chile imports virtually all of its combustible fuel. A large part of the electricity generation is thermal and therefore subject to these external pressures. Growth doesn't happen without energy. A country that wants to continue growing at 5% a year while leaving itself entirely vulnerable to the vagueries and instability of world energy markets needs to think again.

As we begin to see what the peak in global oil production looks like more closely, every nation needs to rethink its energy policy. It's not only growth that is affected by energy prices, but also the ability to go about changing the energy infrastructure itself, to diversify and strengthen supply. There is an immediate need for Chile to formulate an energy strategy with a significant timeline, of some 50 years. Policy needs to address tariffs to encourage the diversification of supply, and to actively focus on the future energy-economy to protect development.

President Bachelet's recent visit to California focusing on solar energy is encouraging. So too is the recent announcement of solar energy courses in tertiary learning institutions. However there is still a disconnect; the daily press releases talk of short term "packages" to offset a local situation brought about by external interest rates, but where is mention of the underlying driver of all this? Let's stop talking about external trends and take the responsibility to do what is necessary to ensure national energy security in Chile.

The big picture is this: the world has serious supply trouble. Chile as an energy-dependent country has serious growth problems if it can't find alternative sources. We must ask ourselves, how long will it take to make the transition from dependence to a restructured econonomy based on renewables? The answer to this could be the difference between the continued improvement in development and equity for Chileans, or a slide back down to the Chile of 20 years ago.

More on http://www.chilecentral.cl/energy_eng.html

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